Tamworth take on Aldershot at the Lamb on Saturday

Shots to progress to last four

Saturday February 23, 2008

FA Trophy Fourth Round Proper

Burton Albion v Ebbsfleet United

Prices correct at time of writing (4pm, Wednesday February 20, 2008).

Home 5/6 Draw 9/4 Away 14/5

Burton will be glad of a home tie in the FA Trophy. They've lost their last three on the road and that spell heralded the end of their unbeaten away record in the Blue Square Premier. The interesting thing is that Burton played at Torquay on Setanta and managed to win that game but I think some of the managers of their forthcoming opponents probably saw that Burton's style of play does change away from home. Ebbsfleet are ninth in the table and just eight points off the play-offs so Liam Daish is doing a fantastic job. The Fleet will be hoping to take their 28,000 members on a day out to Wembley in the FA Trophy after the takeover of Ebbsfleet by MyFootballClub formally went through on Wednesday. Ebbsfleet are quite an attractive price at 14/5 so I'm going for the Fleet to progress to the last four.

Verdict: Away win

Rushden & Diamonds v York City

Home 11/8 Draw 11/5 Away 13/8

Rushden are in 17th place in the Blue Square Premier table, 13 points off relegation. York were in a very similar position and are now 11th. The Minstermen are only 11 points off the play-offs, which shows what a really good job Colin Walker has done. City went 17 games unbeaten before their defeat at Histon and Walker will want a response here in the FA Trophy. Rushden are the 11/8 favourites on their own patch but I'm going for the Minstermen at 13/8 to reach the semi-finals.

Verdict: Away win

Tamworth v Aldershot Town

Home 7/2 Draw 12/5 Away 4/6

Tamworth are 15th in the Blue Square North, which puts them well over 30 places away from Blue Square Premier leaders Aldershot. Even though Tamworth are at home they are 7/2, but the away victory for Aldershot could be one of the bets of the weekend at 4/6. No one like to tips odds-on, especially away teams, but 4/6 for Aldershot to go and win is great value. They will probably rest players but the team that they put out will probably be good enough so I'm going for the Shots.

Verdict: Away win

Torquay United v Crawley Town

Home 8/13 Draw 12/5 Away 4/1

Torquay boss Paul Buckle is another manager who likes to rest players and he has the luxury of being able to rest one or two for the FA Trophy games. The Gulls are the 8/13 favourites at home to Crawley. The Red Devils' home game against Kidderminster was called off at the weekend so their players will be a lot fresher than Torquay's. The away victory for Crawley is 4/1 but I can't see any interest in that. The draw is 12/5 but it's a home win for Torquay at 8/13 for me.

Verdict: Home win

As far as the outright market for the FA Trophy is concerned, Blue Square Premier leaders Aldershot are the favourites at 9/4. It will be very interesting if Aldershot and Torquay are kept apart and meet in the final, and it comes down to the wire between those two clubs in both the FA Trophy and Blue Square Premier. Torquay are second favourites at 5/2 followed by Burton (5/1) and York (8/1). Ebbsfleet, Crawley and Rushden & Diamonds are all 9/1 shots with Tamworth the outsiders at 18/1.

Best Bets

York 13/8

Aldershot 4/6